Can Ed Miliband Count?

According to Wikipedia Ed Miliband has A Levels in Maths (A), Further Maths (A) and Physics (B). This suggests a facility with numbers, and mathematical concepts generally, far in excess of the average MP. So when Ed tells us that ‘New renewable power is now NINE TIMES cheaper than gas’ you would think he would know what he was talking about. But does he? This is an important question as Ed is likely soon to be our Minister of Energy (or Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero to be exact). 

Ed made his claim in August 2022. Judging from his twitter feed he based this on a diagram produced by Simon Evans of Carbon Brief. I had a look at this diagram and I have to conclude that Ed can indeed understand basic graphs and he can also divide one number by another. So perhaps his school education has not gone entirely to waste. 

Evans’ diagram stuck in my mind and I looked forward to vastly cheaper energy bills, having just moved to a 100% renewable supplier. Sadly when my next bill arrived it was not nine times cheaper than before – in fact it was not cheaper at all. Maybe the maths was not as straightforward as Ed imagined? Whatever the reason, this rather depressed me and I began to find my dreams invaded by a spectral Miliband who would harangue me on the joys of anything from electric cars to cavity wall insulation.

In one particularly upsetting dream Ed appeared in my local boozer just as I was having my first sip of bitter. “How much did you pay for that pint” he demanded. ”About a fiver” I told him, though it was none of his business. “That’s not right” claimed Ed, who obviously did not spend much time in boozers “my friend Simon’s chart says its twenty pounds a pint now”.

Jim, our avuncular barman, overheard Ed’s remarks and pitched in with his tuppence worth,

“There were a couple of breweries who tried it on when there was that barley shortage last year, but we just found a new supplier and things soon got back to normal. Who would pay twenty quid for a pint”?

Unabashed, Ed carried on “It’s still a waste of money. You can get eco-beer now for 50p”, he claimed “why don’t you drink that instead?”

Flabbergasted, I collared Jim and asked him why he hadn’t suggested a pint of his cheap eco-beer,

“Well, I heard something about that right enough” he replied, a sceptical look in his eye, “but you might get thirsty waiting for it because he’s talking about the Net Zero brewery – and that hasn’t been built yet”. “But”, I protested, “there’s eco-beer all over the place”. “Aye, you’re not wrong, but that’s the old eco-beer and because its government-subsidised, I have to pay a special tax on it. So it actually works out dearer than my beer”.

Disappointed, I turned back to Ed, “So much for your advice”. But Ed was not to be gainsaid so easily, “Well technically he might be right but soon enough we’ll all be knee deep in basically free beer, you’ll see”. Jim was having none of this. “You’ll be lucky mate, the blokes building that brewery are already complaining about all the additional costs the government is adding”. 

“What costs!” demanded Ed?

“The cost of transporting the beer to the pub for a start”. 

“But that’s included in the price” Ed shot back.

“Not exactly”, countered Jim, gradually realising that Ed might not know the whole story, “Net Zero Beers Ltd wants the government, that is my taxes, to pay for the delivery of their beer”.

“Well, that’s not going to add much is it, it will still be much cheaper than the stuff you sell”, said Ed in a less assured voice.

“More than you think Mr Miliband, because Net Zero beer is quite delicate and will need to be transported in special barrels or it will spoil. So they’ll need to build new trucks – they can’t just use the old ones”.

Ed was scratching his head, pondering his response, when Jim added for good measure:

“And remember eco-beer is all priced in Eco-inflationary pounds”.

“What on Earth does that mean”, snapped Ed.

“It means, Ed,” said Jim, warming to his theme “that 50p is the price you would have paid for Net Zero beer in 2011, if they had made it then. But the price goes up each year in line with all the other booze we sell”.

Ed was beginning to look a little despondent, but suddenly he brightened up again

“Well, that’s as maybe but at least we won’t have to drink your disgusting beer anymore”.

“I wouldn’t count on that” replied Jim, his head shaking slowly from side to side.

“On come on, you’re just being difficult! Why ever not?”

“Because, the brewery will be powered by windmills, so you can only make Net Zero beer when it’s blowing a gale. The rest of the time you’ll still have to drink my disgusting swill.”

“So, you mean it’s still going to cost me a fiver.” Asked Ed disconsolately.

“Actually, no” added Jim in a more confiding tone, “it will cost you a tenner”.

“But that’s daylight robbery” Ed almost screamed.

“Not at all, you see I will have to pay the brewery for my quota of Net Zero whether my customers drink it all or not, and, my own beer will be rationed whenever they make too much Net Zero. So, you see, I will need to put my prices up to compensate for the reduced sales. Otherwise I’ll go bust.

Ed sat staring at me, somewhat perplexed. It occurred to me that perhaps he should also have taken A Level Biology as well as maths; he might then have noticed that he was not comparing apples with apples. I decided to test if Jim had convinced him,

“So how much do you think Net Zero beer will really cost”

“50p” replied Ed. At which point I woke up, relieved to find that it had all just been a bad dream.

Settled Science and Global Warming

No less a person than the former American President Barak Obama informed the world in 2014, “The debate is settled. Climate change is a fact.” Some sceptics responded to this assertion by claiming that science is never settled; science is a process that continuously evolves, not a set of facts cast in stone. But Obama essentially dismissed this point of view when he said “We don’t have time for a meeting of The Flat Earth Society”.

Is it possible to reconcile these two points of view? If science is never settled how can we use it to formulate a course of action? If new information might change our view tomorrow how are we to make any plans on the basis of current knowledge? This sounds like a council of despair and an excuse to do nothing.

From a strictly objective point of view the sceptics are right – it is always possible that new data might disprove the incumbent theory. Take my own field of geology. When I was a child, students of geology were taught that the Earth’s crust was rigid and that the positions of the continents were fixed. Years later, when I studied geology at university these former students became my teachers. By then the plate tectonic revolution had swept through and I was taught that these formerly fixed continents were now free to drift across the globe, colliding and separating one from the other. It is difficult to imagine two more different views of the same Earth.

How could such a mistaken model for the Earth’s crust hold sway? (I can almost hear President Eisenhower tell the world in 1956 “The Science is settled. Fixed continents are a fact”.) There was no lack of evidence that ‘continental drift’, as it was then called, might be possible. The German scientific polymath Alfred Wegener had proposed as early as 1912 that the Atlantic Ocean had been created by the separation of America from Europe and Africa. Over the next half century geologists amassed substantial evidence from across the globe that supported the theory of mobile continents. The jigsaw like fit of South America with Africa was the iconic example but many other lines of evidence pointed in the same direction: terrestrial animals such as marsupials, and even earthworms are today found in continents far distant from each other; glacial rocks occur in what are now tropical locations; and tropical species such as crocodiles have been found in sediments in the high Arctic. How did they all get there?

All this evidence, though, failed to undermine the implacable resistance of the geophysicists, led by Harold Jeffreys of Cambridge University. Jeffreys dismissed the evidence by demonstrating mathematically, at least to his own satisfaction, that the Earth’s crust was too rigid to allow any significant lateral movement. Many geologists accepted the geophysical arguments and so had to explain away the geological ‘evidence’. ‘Land Bridges’ were a favourite to account for the presence of similar animals on widely separated continents – they were still teaching about these when I was an undergraduate in the mid-70’s! The fit of Africa and South America was dismissed as coincidental, and anyway not that good.

It turned out, of course, that the geological evidence was largely correct and Jeffrey’s objections were mistaken. But the plate tectonic paradigm did not triumph on the basis of the geological evidence. Only when new types of data were brought to bear – especially the discovery of magnetic stripes in oceanic crust and of geophysical ‘low velocity zones’ deep in the Earth’s crust – was the old geological evidence reinterpreted in terms of mobile continents.

The American historian of science Thomas Kuhn proposed in his book ‘The Structure of Scientific Revolutions’ that science at any one time tends to be governed by a ruling ‘paradigm’. The paradigm defines the problems that can be studied and is not generally subject to investigation itself. Results that fail to conform to the paradigm rarely lead immediately to its overthrow; they can be explained away as experimental error, or sub-theories may be constructed to protect the paradigm from refutation. However eventually so many anomalies may arise that the paradigm itself is called into question.

This seems to me a pretty good explanation of how the plate tectonic revolution came about.

Does it have any relevance for modern climate science? There is little doubt that the science today operates within a clearly identifiable paradigm – let’s call it the greenhouse gas theory. This theory maintains that global warming today is caused by the increase of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHG’s) that are accumulating in the atmosphere as a result of human activities. Climate scientists, along with Barak Obama, are certain that the paradigm is correct. Moreover, scientists who do not buy in to this paradigm are effectively excluded from working on climate. Is this wise?

Before looking deeper into that issue, let’s consider science and certainty a little further. There are, surely epistemological grounds for claiming that nothing in science can be regarded as a fact. But as I noted earlier, this stance is not very helpful in the real world; if we waited for certainty we would never do anything. In practice most scientists subconsciously subscribe to some version of the celebrated biologist Stephen Jay Gould’s definition: 

“In science ‘fact’ can only mean ‘confirmed to such a degree that it would be perverse to withhold provisional assent’. I suppose that apples might start to rise tomorrow, but the possibility does not merit equal time in physics classrooms.”

Does this help? I think it at least allows us to do away with some spurious objections. The example of apples rising rather than, as Newton observed, falling is more useful than abstract statements about settled or non-settled science. We would all agree that flat-earthism is as ridiculous as rising apples. But is Obama justified in using this analogy to dismiss climate sceptics? I’m not so sure.

The argument is not that greenhouse gas theory is wrong; in terms of Gould’s definition I would say that it is a fact. We would not be here to discuss all this if GHG’s were absent from the atmosphere. But it is not as simple as that. To return to the plate tectonic analogy, Jeffreys was correct in his assertion that continental crust could not just plough its way through the oceans. However, neither he, nor anybody else at the time, knew that deep below the crust very different rocks existed that could ‘flow’ extremely slowly and thus carry the upper crustal rocks passively along. The devil is in the detail.

Why might anthropomorphic GHG theory provide an incomplete explanation of current global warming? There are several reasons. An obvious one is that much greater climatic changes have occurred in geologically recent times without man’s influence. Only fifteen thousand years ago the place where I am writing this was uninhabitable because large parts of the Northern Hemisphere were covered in ice. Those ice sheets advanced and receded multiple time in the past two million years as temperature oscillated from cold to warm and back. Scientists have uncovered good circumstantial evidence to relate these changes to so-called ‘Milankovitch Cycles’ – changes in insolation caused by cyclic variations in the Earth’s orbit. But the variation in insolation seems tiny in comparison to the profound changes to the Earth’s climate. Terrestrial factors must amplify the solar signal somehow. Climate scientists have argued that CO2 is the amplifier and thus GHG can account for the ice ages. But others think convincing proof is lacking and other factors are likely to be involved. At the present time this debate is unresolved.

Many climate scientists argue that these ice age cycles are not relevant to the current situation. They claim that since the ice sheets receded from Eurasia and North America (ca 15-10 thousand years ago) climatic variation has been minimal. Therefore, in the jargon, the current temperature increase is portrayed as ‘unprecedented’. This was spectacularly illustrated some 25 years ago when Michael Mann and colleagues produced the first version of what became known as the ‘Hockey Stick’, the graph that featured as poster-child for the IPCC’s 3rd Assessment Report in 2001. The hockey stick portrayed global temperatures as essentially static, or falling slightly over the past 2000 years before a dramatic rise coinciding with 20th Century industrial development.

But the validity of the Hockey Stick reconstruction immediately caused controversy and the argument has hardly abated over the last 25 years. Suffice it to say that despite numerous accusations of poor quality, cherry-picked data and dubious statistics the climate establishment has clung tenaciously to this icon of man-made climate change. It is hard not to see this as ideological commitment to the GHG paradigm. Even the IPCC found it expedient to play down Hockey Stick in later assessment reports.

Prior to the Hockey Stick, earlier workers had identified plentiful variation in historic climate data. Terms such as The Little Ice Age, The Medieval Warm Period or The Roman Warm Period all suggested perceptible climate change during the past 2000 years. But when considered through the prism of the GHG paradigm these all, conveniently, started to fade away. Could it really be that generations of previous researchers were mistaken? To be sure some limited, local change is still allowed, but global climate change it is not.

On a longer time-scale, climate reconstructions once spoke of a post-glacial climate optimum some 8-10,000 years ago (The Holocene Climatic Optimum in the jargon). This too is being called into question because again it cannot be accommodated by the GHG narrative.

Perhaps the current climate warriors are right. New and better data often lead to adjustments to old interpretations. But it is hard not to conclude that the questions being asked are indeed framed by the GHG paradigm. And since most researchers in government labs or university departments have to buy into the paradigm it is hard to see them publishing results that will challenge it. All the more so as western governments are committed to vast expenditure on the basis that the GHG theory is fact. Who is going to tell them that it might all be a terrible mistake?

It might be useful to make another diversion into facts and their place in this discussion. Charles Darwin famously wrote that

False facts are highly injurious to the progress of science, for they often endure long; but false views, if supported by evidence, do little harm, for everyone takes a salutary pleasure in proving their falseness; and when this is done, one path towards error is closed…”

The argument over the Hockey Stick is, in part, about false facts. The Hockey Stick was constructed by combining a large number of proxy data-sets, mainly tree rings, into a statistical model. Critics have argued that much of this data is invalid for a variety of reasons. Some proxies respond to factors other than temperature, such as increased CO2. Some are of dubious quality in that the match to temperature data over a ‘control period’ is poor. Yet others come from sites where alternative tree ring data-sets conflict with those chosen. So the ‘facts’ that have been modelled to produce the Hockey Stick are not unambiguous. Other researchers could have chosen different data sets and reached different conclusions.

Proponents of the Hockey Stick argue that independent reconstructions have validated it time and again. But critics point out that many of the same data sets appear repeatedly in these reconstructions, so they are not really independent at all. I would argue vehemently that this is not simply cavilling by naysayers determined to sabotage GHG theory on behalf of supposedly ‘vested interests’ such as the fossil fuel companies. In fact this debate went all the way to the US Senate in 2006. Both critics and proponents claimed victory in that hearing but the views of Ed Wegman, an eminent statistician, who was involved in the inquiry are worth noting. He concluded, inter alia, that

“In general we found MBH98 and MBH99 [the original Hockey Stick papers] to be somewhat obscure and the criticisms of [McIntyre and McKitrick] (two researchers who questioned the Hockey Stick) to be valid and compelling.” He also observed that 

“this group has a self-reinforcing feedback mechanism and moreover, the work has been sufficiently politicized that they can hardly reassess their public positions without losing credibility.”

Hardly a ringing endorsement. I don’t recall the US Government ever being asked to settle a debate with the Flat Earth Society. One does not need to agree with Wegman to appreciate that some aspects of climate science may be less certain than their adherents proclaim.  

The rejection of any significant fluctuations in temperature in the post-glacial period is all the more remarkable when one considers the modern data, including that from satellites and weather balloons. In 1998, 2016 and now in 2023/2024, for example, global temperature change of around 1oC occurred within the space of a year. These rapid temperature changes are thought to be caused by the El Niño/La Niña cycles in the Pacific Ocean. The current climate change shibboleth is that we must at all costs avoid an increase in temperature of 1.5oC above pre-industrial. Yet natural change is capable of producing two thirds of this increase in the blink of an eye. There are other natural factors that could produce temperature changes on longer time-frames. Ocean current systems such as the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, for example, cycle through warm and cool periods over periods of half a century or more and can have a significant impact on climate.

The existence of these natural factors need not invalidate GHG theory. In fact if natural factors that cool the planet are currently counteracting the rise in temperature caused by GHG’s then the climate crisis might be even worse than we suspect. Surely it is worth trying to find out.

So is President Obama right to say that the science is settled? I leave that for the reader to decide. But I can’t help recalling the possibly apocryphal quote, to the effect that climate scientists blame it all on GHG’s because they cannot think what else it might be. That in turn brings to mind the tortuous words of another American politician:

“There are known knowns; there are things that we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the things we do not know we don’t know.” 

Scientists should be humble in the face of nature’s complexity. Only if you keep an open mind are you likely to encounter unknown unknowns.

Review: Climate The Movie, Director Martin Durkin

We’re Doomed – Private Frazer, Dad’s Army 

How do you go about persuading the public that the Earth is flat? That would seem to be the task that Martin Durkin set himself in his new film ‘Climate The Movie’. Dismissing the so-called consensus on climate change, Durkin argues that the ‘science’ is rotten to the core and is sustained only by marginalising dissenters before their views can be properly considered. Why? – because climate science has become the ultimate gravy train and too many vested interests have climbed aboard to allow it to be derailed.

Durkin argues that most of the evidence for climate change fueled by carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHG’s) is bogus and sustained by manipulated data and dubious statistics. Whether it be historic temperature records, environmental impact studies or the climate models, Durkin finds shoddy science everywhere.

The virtually insuperable problem for the sceptic is that climate change seems to be supported by such a vast array of evidence that most laymen assume that it cannot all be false. And whilst there are no doubt opportunists taking advantage of the ‘crisis’ it presents, surely not everyone can be in on the scam?

Durkin’s answer to this is that the science was initially warped by a coterie of well-placed activists who produced alarming results on the basis of poor or corrupted data sets. These results were quickly picked up by science journalists and the mainstream media (MSM). Before long environmental activists and ambitious politicians saw that the threat of global warming could be used to advance their own agendas. So climate change was soon repackaged as an existential crisis – and to question it was not only unscientific but immoral. With the external world suitably panicked, alarmist academics were then able to exert pressure to ensure that studies that challenged the global warming narrative were suppressed.  The path was then clear for profound changes to our way of life, all justified by the need to save the planet.

Let’s suppose for the sake of argument that Durkin is right. How could you convince a sceptical audience of your case? You might begin by questioning the data on which the alarmist case rests. Is it fit for purpose? Has it been compromised or manipulated in any way? You could examine the claims for environmental breakdown that climate change is said to be producing, such as increased incidence of hurricanes or wild-fires. You might even question the underlying theory – are there other explanations for the phenomena we observe? Durkin takes a stab at most of this with the help of a number of experts who reject the so-called consensus on climate change. Does he make a convincing case?

Durkin’s Criticisms – Science & Data

Durkin starts his critique by reviewing the climate history of the planet over the last 500 million years. Several experts are brought in to argue that current temperatures are atypical not in being too hot but in being far cooler than the long-term average. We are currently living through an ice age with ice caps at both poles. Only a couple of other periods in the far distant past are at all comparable. Not only was the planet much warmer for most of its history, life thrived because a combination of higher temperatures and higher CO2 produced optimum conditions for plants and animals. In contrast the current ice age with its depleted CO2 levels supports a comparatively impoverished biota.

Turning to the modern era, Durkin then takes aim at the global temperature record as measured by ground-based thermometers. Before the recent advent of climate alarmism thermometers were not positioned to provide input to global temperature calculations; they were intended for immediate use by local communities. As such they were installed at convenient locations where it was easy to access and read them. As populations grew and towns expanded, weather stations that were initially rural were enveloped by the rapidly expanding concrete jungle. As a result, temperatures read at these stations began to be affected by such non-climatic factors as the ‘Urban Heat Island Effect’. This phenomenon is well known from the temperature pattern around large cities; city centres can be 5oC, or more, warmer than the surrounding countryside. 

Durkin argues that bogus temperature data from these badly sited stations has resulted in a spurious pattern of rapid warming. In contrast, temperature reconstructions using only rural stations show less warming, much of which occurred in the early 20th Century prior to the rapid increase in CO2 emissions. Data from the oceans as well as data recorded by weather balloons and satellites matches the rural record better according to scientists such as Willie Soon. 

This revised temperature record of temperature change – more irregular and slower than the official version – is then used to attack the underlying paradigm that temperature rise is a direct result of the increase in GHG’s. Durkin’s dissident experts argue that there are many other factors that affect climate, but which are simply ignored. These include solar activity, cosmic rays, ocean currents, clouds etc etc.  For Will Happer the temperature is simply rebounding from the Little Ice Age, a recent cold period for which the CO2 paradigm offers no explanation. Is the consensus simply wrong?

Durkin’s Criticisms – Environmental Consequences

Durkin then tackles the supposed environmental impacts of climate change.  Whether we consider, for example, Atlantic hurricanes, wildfires or droughts, he argues that there is little evidence that things are getting worse, apocalyptic headlines not withstanding. Many of the claims appear in the popular press rather than in scientific journals. Durkin interprets them as baseless scaremongering promoted by craven journalists desperate to sell newspapers. The raw data simply do not support the alarmist narrative according to scientists such as Steve Koonin. Koonin argues that even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports find little hard evidence to justify the continual torrent of  negative stories in the media.

Durkin’s Ctiticisms – Climate Models

So, if there is little evidence of a climate emergency at the present day, what about all those forecasts of the coming apocalypse, perhaps even the extinction of mankind? According to Durkin’s experts, these too are unfounded. For a start, the climate models are all running much too hot and are not supported even by the exaggerated land-based data. And claims that an increase of global average temperature of 1.5oC will lead to ‘climate breakdown’ are simply silly.

Why the Panic?

But if the science is so obviously wrong, why have so many in the western world bought into it? Durkin thinks that power-hungry politicians and anti-capitalist green groups both spotted an ideal opportunity to bend western society to their own ends. For politicians the emergency provides an ideal excuse for centralising power, whilst for greens it provides a rationale for the dismantling of capitalist society and a return to pre-industrial Eden. And climate scientists will continue to churn out the evidence because their funding is dependent on identifying climate threats.

Does Durkin have a Case? – Science & Data

There is little doubt that the climate establishment will dismiss Durkin’s criticisms as the work of a group of contrarian cranks. Barak Obama, no less has told us that “We don’t have time for a meeting of the flat Earth Society”. So who is right?

I think Durkin has done a fair job of highlighting some of the problems of climate science. He is surely right to challenge the global temperature data. Whether global warming is an existential threat or a manageable problem depends critically on the rate of temperature increase. Yet the climate establishment seems reluctant to address the influence of non-climatic factors that could be distorting the data. Willie Soon’s temperature record based on (hopefully) uncontaminated rural stations shows a lower rate of increase with a larger part of the temperature rise taking place in the early 20th Century prior to the acceleration in CO2 emissions in mid-century. This is anecdotally supported by claims that the 1930’s, in the US at least, temperatures were much higher than today.  

It could be, though, that the discussion of ground-based temperature record soon becomes irrelevant. Durkin points out that we have been acquiring satellite-based temperature data since 1979. These data do indeed show a lower rate of temperature rise than the ‘official’ ground based data, but is this necessarily the good news that Durkin thinks it is? The UAH (University of Alabama, Huntsville US) data discussed by Roy Spencer in the film indicates a rate of increase of about 0.2oC per decade (2oC per century) for land. If this trend continues we will soon enter territory which climate scientists regard as dangerous.

Thus far I have some sympathy for Durkin’s case but when he then challenges basic greenhouse gas theory he is courting a charge of flat-earthism. The basic greenhouse gas theory is not in question – if Obama’s comment on ‘settled science’ were limited to that he would be quite right. The only legitimate argument concerns the amount of heating a given increase of CO2 (and other GHG’s) will produce, all other factors being equal.  Contributors such as Will Happer are well aware of this; in fact Happer has explained elsewhere why additional COemissions might result in only a small rise in temperature. It’s a pity that here he talks about ‘scams’ and ‘fraud’ instead of sticking to the science. To get technical for a moment, the whole debate boils down to establishing the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of CO2 and the other GHG’s. Failure to discuss this was an unfortunate omission. 

Does Durkin have a Case? – Environmental Consequences

If the pace and cause(s)of global warming are still under dispute, what of Durkin’s argument that the supposed environmental impacts are also being exaggerated? Here I think he is on surer ground; so many dire predictions have already proved unfounded – the extinction of the polar bear, the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, the submergence of New York etc etc – that the catastrophe narrative is wearing thin. 

The determination to pin all of the world’s ills on CO2 is both silly and counter-productive. Take one example quoted in the film – the incidence of wildfires. It would not surprise me in the slightest if the number and extent of these fires had increased significantly since the 19th Century. Not because of climate change, but simply from the pressures of an increasing and more affluent population that wants to exploit forests for leisure and living space. How many fires have been started by poorly maintained electricity networks, to say nothing of barbeques, discarded cigarettes and even arson? Yet every fire is greeted in the media as proof that the earth is burning up. And blaming it all on CO2 makes it less likely that simple forest management measures that could reduce wildfires, whether climate change is real or not, are less likely to be put in place.

Are wild fires increasing or not? The figure shown in the film seems to refer to the US and shows a dramatic decline since a peak in the 1930’s. You could still find a version of this figure in Wikipedia in April 2024. However, if you go to Our World in Data, the figure is now clipped at 1983 and shows a rising trend over the past 40 years. The edit is justified by ‘consistent reporting’.  This is a disturbing feature of much of the climate science world – there always seem to be reasons to eliminate inconvenient data.  

Another example quoted in the film is hurricane activity. Even the IPCC accepts that ‘there is only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences’. The IPCC are careful to let you know that this does not imply that there has been no change – just that they have so far been unable to confirm it. But if the best science has such difficulties confirming that things are getting worse, whence all the apocalyptic headlines?

Things may not be that bad now but what of the near future? Can we make reasonable extrapolations of future temperature based on current trends and greenhouse gas theory? This is what the global climate models are supposed to do. But Durkin is quite right to point out that these models seem to be running too hot. It is nearly 50 years since the first global climate model appeared yet the latest generation of models still fail to match the empirical data. Building disaster scenarios on the basis of these models will not help us plan effectively for the future.

Do we Need to Reconsider Climate Change?

Has Durkin done enough, despite some questionable science, to persuade us to take a another look at climate change? Those who agree with Obama’s ‘flat-earthism’ comments will see that as time-wasting, no doubt motivated by the fossil fuel companies and their apologists. But if climate science is as robust as is claimed then it should be easy to rebut counter-arguments.  One of the reasons that many of us feel uneasy about climate science is the tendency for its proponents to smear opponents and question their motives, as Sallie Baliunas testified movingly in the film.

But the over-riding reason that climate change needs to be critically examined is the cost to all of us for preventing its supposed catastrophic consequences. As Carl Sagan once said, “Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence.” I personally find it scarcely believable that we have set ourselves on a course to change our way of life, almost certainly for the worse, without first having first subjected the data to exhaustive scrutiny. 

I’m less concerned by Durkin’s claim that this is all an establishment stitch-up. Can the western scientific and political elite really be colluding to control the populace ‘by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary?’ It may be true that a consensus on climate change has been achieved by the simple expedient of marginalising anyone who questions the narrative. But this does not mean those views are not sincerely held. Nevertheless, the deification of the greenhouse gas theory has produced a scientific monoculture where evidence is no longer gathered to test the theory but to support it. Confirmation bias and motivated reasoning do the rest.

So whilst disagreeing somewhat with Durkin on the factors that have led us into a perceived ‘climate crisis’, I share his concern that the cure may be worse than the disease. For the UK alone, the bill for Net Zero is likely to stretch into the trillions of pounds. Politicians strive to outdo each other with decarbonisation pledges, pretending that a wholesale reorganisation of society can be achieved at minimal cost. The road to Hell is indeed paved with good intentions.

How will we know if all this effort is worth it? Even if the UK cut its GHG emissions to zero today, it would only suppress the projected temperature rise by about one hundredth of one degree – an achievement both irrelevant and impossible to measure. Supporters argue that we need to put our own house in order to show an example to others. But the others show no sign of heeding that example; the developing world, led by China and India continue to increase their emissions. Despite 28 COP meetings over the past 30 years, atmospheric CO2 is at an all-time high. 

Last Word

What to do? Durkin’s answer that we should just return to the status quo anti because the whole thing is just a hoax does not pass muster. But we should take a much more critical look at the whole of climate science. Funding for some ‘Red Teams’ to challenge the current paradigm would help. The climate establishment has made its case for the prosecution. Durkin has at least convinced me that it may be worth listening to the defense. We desperately need to unravel the science from the propaganda and evaluate it objectively. Given that such an exercise would take only a fraction of the sum envisaged to fight climate catastrophe, what objection could there be? We also need to recognise that climate change does not present us with a binary choice; disaster or salvation. Rather the consequences depend on how much heating occurs. How much is manageable and when does it become calamitous? We need to be sure of the consequences lest we imperil western civilisation on a wholly or partially imaginary threat. It may turn out that we are really playing with fire, but let’s just make sure first, no? 

The Fossil Woman, A Life of Mary Anning, by Tom Sharpe

‘Until recently it could be safely assumed that Mary Anning was the most famous person many of us had never heard of’ writes Tom Sharpe in the introduction to this authoritative biography. Yet in August 2020 one of her letters was auctioned at Sotheby’s for over £100,000. And she is now part of the British primary school curriculum. In The Fossil Woman, Sharpe offers us the best explanation to date for Mary’s changing fortunes.

Mary Anning was born into a poor working-class family in Lyme Regis, on the southwest coast of England, in 1799. Despite the rigid social structure of the time, and her lack of any but the most basic education, she became a respected authority on the fossil remains of the Dorset coast before she was thirty. Many of the key scientists whose work paved the way for Darwin’s theory of evolution came regularly to Lyme to meet with her and discuss her discoveries. What drove this young woman to scour the dangerous cliffs of Dorset for evidence of primordial life whilst most of her contemporaries toiled in the local mills?

At the turn of the 19th Century the science of the earth was in its infancy. A few geological pioneers – mainly God-fearing Churchmen or the independently wealthy – picked over the rocks of Britain and Europe trying to piece together how the earth’s land masses had come into existence. At the same time the Industrial Revolution had created a demand for coal, limestone, ironstones and other useful deposits. The search for these resources added impetus to the study of the earth, as fortunes were to be made by those who could lay claim to them. These geological investigations unveiled a landscape that was not simply a random accumulation of rock, but was built from many individual layers with a clear underlying order. Such layers could be mapped and their distribution beneath the surface predicted. Crucial to the identification of individual strata were the distinctive fossils they contained.  

Whilst entrepreneurs got rich from their new mineral discoveries some geologists began to fret about the implications of their work. How did they fit in with their religious beliefs? What were they to make of the fossils they were discovering that had no living counterparts? How could their discoveries be reconciled with the Biblical account of Creation to which most of them subscribed?    

Others ignored these theoretical speculations and busied themselves assembling collections of the newly fashionable fossils. Some rich collectors would pay handsomely for exceptional specimens. This in turn sparked a mania for fossil collecting amongst the public. Enterprising locals in towns such as Lyme Regis were quick to realise that they could supplement their income by selling good specimens to wealthy visitors. This was a potential lifeline at a time when many families lived on a few pennies per day and money was always short.

One of the first to spot the commercial opportunity was Richard Anning, Mary’s father. Though a cabinet maker by trade, he took every opportunity to explore the rocky foreshore around Lyme, often taking young Mary and her elder brother Joseph with him. Richard died in 1810 when Mary was only 11 but by then she was already hooked. Within a year she and Joseph had discovered the first great fossil that would make Lyme the focus of the new science of palaeontology. A seventeen feet monster with a head four feet long and packed with sharp teeth, was unearthed from the rocks just east of Lyme. 

This fossil was at first thought to be a type of crocodile, but was later shown to be an extinct carnivorous marine reptile christened Ichthyosaurus. It was purchased from Mary by the local bigwig Henry Hoste Henley for £23 – the equivalent of perhaps £1,000 today, a fabulous sum to the teenaged collector. Henley generously gifted the specimen to a new museum in London, the Egyptian Hall on Piccadilly. There it came to the attention of Sir Everard Home, Professor of Anatomy and Surgery at the Royal College of Surgeons. He published the first description of the new creature in 1814 which sent many of the leading scientists of the day scurrying to Lyme Regis.

Early visitors to Lyme soon encountered Mary who always had specimens for sale. At first she was regarded as little more than a saleswoman – the real work on these fossil animals would take place under the eyes of the experts in London. So much so that as early as 1819 when her ichthyosaur was purchased by the British Museum her status as the discoverer had already been forgotten. But Mary would not be so easily overlooked. A series of further spectacular discoveries followed over the next decade – first the plesiosaur, a marine reptile that to Buckland resembled a combination of lizard, crocodile, snake, tortoise, chameleon and whale. Then came the pterosaur, a nightmarish winged reptile. As the discoveries continued, Mary’s understanding of her discoveries developed rapidly and she impressed many of her visitors with her technical acumen.

In recognition of her contributions, some of the more (relatively) enlightened geologists who bought specimens from Mary were careful to give her credit when describing her specimens. Chief amongst these were William Buckland, eccentric first Professor of Geology at Oxford and Henry de la Beche who would become the first director of the Geological Survey. They were impressed by her scientific reasoning which led to a number of breakthroughs in the interpretation of fossil remains. She demonstrated, for example, that the odd brown-black lumps found in certain layers of rock near Lyme were the fossil ink-sacs of extinct squid like animals. She even managed to extract some of the ink with which her friend Elizabeth Philpott drew one of Mary’s fossils. On another occasion she showed that the dark twisted lumps of rock called ‘bezoar’ stones commonly found in the rocks around Lyme were actually ichthyosaur droppings. That may sound rather off-putting but these stones, subsequently renamed coprolites (Greek for ‘dung stone’) by Buckland allowed palaeontologists to understand the predation habits of ichthyosaurs by examining the fragments of bone and shell which they contained. It turns out that amongst the prey of ichthyosaurs were – smaller ichthyosaurs!

But despite her obvious talent there were simply no professional or academic opportunities for a working class woman such as Mary. Her gender and social status condemned her to remain, however accomplished, a seller of fossils to the great men of the Universities and Royal Societies. So she persevered at her precarious and trade in order to make ends meet. But years could go by without a valuable find, money was often tight – and danger was ever-present around the unstable cliffs of Lyme. Mary had several narrow escapes including one rockfall which killed her beloved dog Tray. And, as the century wore on the craze for fossils waned and prices dropped. Penury threatened on numerous occasions.    

Several of her male colleagues interceded financially at various times. In 1820 Colonel Thomas Birch, a frequent visitor to the Anning shop sold his collection at auction, raising £400 for the family. The previous year he had arrived in Lyme to find the Anning’s on the point of selling their furniture to pay their bills. Later, in 1835 Buckland and others lobbied the Prime Minister, Lord Melbourne, to provide her with a small pension. With additional contributions from Buckland’s circle this provide an income of about £25 per year. More than a maid earned but hardly luxury.

At times Mary seemed resentful at her lot and expressed frustration at her isolation in Lyme, far removed from the scientific breakthroughs that her discoveries had made possible. And she was an exile even in her home town – her singular vocation distancing her from her more conventional neighbours. But for the most part she seems to have accepted her lot stoically and despite this solitary existence she worked tirelessly for the poor and infirm of Lyme. Then in 1842 her mother died and Mary seemed to become increasingly morose, to judge by the verses she copied out of various books:

It is that I am all alone..

Yet in my dreams a form I view

That thinks on me and loves me, too;

I start and when the vision’s flown

I weep that I am all alone 

(Henry Kirk White, Solitude)

Not long after her mother’s death Mary developed breast cancer from which she died on March 9th 1947. Fittingly she is buried in St Michael’s Churchyard in Lyme, close to where many of her discoveries were made.  As Sharpe notes ‘Her death did not pass unnoticed’ but neither did it unite the country in grief at the passing of a great mind. She was, however, appropriately commemorated by the Geological Society of London which had made her an Honorary Member a year earlier. In his Anniversary Address to the Society Henry de la Beche paid tribute to her, noting that she ‘contributed by her talents and untiring researches in no small degree to our knowledge of the great Enalio-saurians and other forms of organic life in the vicinity of Lyme Regis’.

However, in the years following her death Mary’s legacy began to fade; her role in in these seminal fossil discoveries was largely forgotten, her old fossil shop was demolished and all but one of her notebooks were lost. With these material testaments to her life and work gone, she receded into the background as just another minor character in the history of science. 

To what then do we owe the resurgence of interest in Mary Anning? The main elements of her story had been known for 150 years when she finally found popular esteem around the turn of this century. Sharpe is surely right in suggesting that the struggle for female equality must be a factor. Mary’s story bears powerful witness to the stultifying effects of socially and sexually stratified society in which working class women were at the very bottom.  Once women had gained a foothold in the workplace a more determined search began to identify their unjustly neglected predecessors – and there was Mary patiently awaiting acknowledgement. 

There is also the subject matter itself. Lyme Regis was the epicentre of the exciting new science of palaeontology when Mary was making her discoveries. But major breakthroughs in other fields, particularly physics and biology shifted the focus of public attention, leaving palaeontology as something of a backwater. In recent years however, animatronics and CGI have brought the prehistoric world dramatically to life in films such as Jurassic Park. This combined with the dramatic discoveries of beautifully preserved feathered dinosaurs from China led to a resurgence in interest in fossil animals.

Finally, for those for whom the science is not enough, there is the life. Survivor of a lightning strike at the age of fifteen months; one of only two children to reach adulthood out of a family of nine; dead at forty-seven of an illness essentially untreatable at that time – Mary’s story is brim-full of tragedy, suffering and triumph over seemingly insuperable odds.

Tom Sharpe tells this story in clear no-nonsense prose. Unlike Mary’s previous biographers such as Patricia Pierce1 or Shelley Emling2, he is himself a geologist and thus well placed to evaluate Mary’s achievements. Thus he points out that whilst her discoveries were important in themselves, it is in her careful studies of these fossils that her scientific originality is best demonstrated. For example those analyses of ink sacs and coprolites showed Mary pioneering the use of comparative anatomy and palaeoecology – fields that would prove central to understanding the history of life.

Sharpe’s careful scholarship also clears away some of the mythologizing that has inevitably gathered around Anning’s name. This is important at a time when filmmakers and writers are adapting her legacy for their own agendas. He shows for example that there is simply no evidence for the supposed love affair with Charlotte Murchison that features in the recent film Ammonite. The well chosen illustrations also help bring the story to life.

If I were pressed to find something missing in Sharpe’s account I would perhaps suggest that he could have made more of the tension between religion and science that Mary’s discoveries intensified. As noted earlier many of the fossil hunters were devout Christians. Yet the science they were pioneering posed an unavoidable challenge to the Biblical account of Creation. Buckland and others attempted at first to explain the fossil record by relating it to the Universal Flood. As this became increasingly untenable they reinterpreted the seven days of creation as seven geological epochs that culminated in the creation of mankind. But none of these ingenious formulations convinced for long and they were swept away when Darwin’s Origin of Species was published in 1859.

What did Mary think of all this? To what extent was she aware of Buckland’s ingenious arguments? Was she aware of the various evolutionary theories that were ‘in the air’ long before Darwin’s definitive account appeared twelve years after her death? She remained an active Church-goer all her life but surely someone who had peered unflinchingly into the abyss of time must have felt that tension between her religion and her science? Perhaps we will never know; or perhaps those missing notebooks will be rediscovered and cast new light on this intriguing woman. Until then Sharpe’s book can be heartily recommended as the best introduction to her life and work. 

  1. Jurassic Mary – Mary Anning and the Primeval Monsters. Patricia Pierce 2006. The History Press.
  2. The Fossil Hunter. Shelley Emling. 2009. St. Martin’s Griffin, New York. 

The Heart’s Invisible Furies by John Boyne

So I finally managed to finish The Heart’s Invisible Furies after months of struggle. I loved the first couple of chapters but gradually lost patience with the story-line. This is my attempt to explain why.

This is an ambitious book that follows the life of a gay man from conception to terminal illness in old age. It is by turns brilliantly funny, tragic, annoying and overly sentimental. It tells the story of Cyril Avery against a background of a bigoted hypocritical Ireland dominated by the Catholic Church; a liberated Amsterdam with a sleazy underbelly; and a New York fearful of the 1980’s AIDS epidemic. It ends full circle in a modern Ireland somewhat less bigoted than half a century earlier.

The first few chapters describe how Cyril was conceived and given up for adoption by a teenage single mum who was ostracised by her family and community. For me this was the best part of the book. Despite the tragic storyline the text is littered with brilliantly funny dialogue and great characters in an Ireland seemingly run by lecherous Catholic Priests. Cyril’s birth during a violent assault in which a man murders his gay son is quite terrifying.

Cyril’s early life with his eccentric adoptive parentis also endearingly told as is his crush on, and adventures with, the dazzling Julian Woodbead. But somewhere around here I began to fret over the profusion of outlandish characters, the reliance on coincidence as a plot shaping device and the number of impossibly handsome men in Ireland. The frequent appearances of real historical politicians and writers is also somewhat double-edged. Many younger readers will probably have little recollection often such major figures such as Charles Haughey or Brendan Behan far less the more obscure figures who make an occasional appearance.

The core of the book revolves around Cyril’s attempts to find some sort of fulfilment as a gay man in a country where homosexuality is illegal. The convoluted attempts to connect with other gay men and the sometimes rather sordid nature of his ‘relationships’ convey convincingly the desolation and desperation of Cyril’s struggle to find sexual and emotional release.Ultimately Cyril moves to Amsterdam and meets Bastien. His quest for a meaningful relationship ends triumphantly…until another shocking hate-crime ends Bastien’s life.

If the story had ended hereabouts it would have been a heart-felt portrayal of a young gay man’s search for acceptance in a bigoted and hostile world. But there is still an awful long way to go. I for one found the story after Bastien’s murder in Central Park increasingly implausible. Several episodes just did not ring true or seemed completely superfluous to the story. A couple of examples: Cyril, in his pre-Amsterdam days, unable to admit his homosexuality to Julian’s sister Alice, succumbs to her advances and marries her only to run away as soon as the vows are exchanged. As this was the second time that Alice was dumped at the altar it is not hard to imagine the damage to her self-esteem – and her attitude to Cyril. And yet, when they meet again years later the tone quickly becomes one of offended jocularity which simply fails to convey the emotional chasm that should separate them. Or, there is the chapter where Cyril reluctantly goes on a date with a young, thrusting (and married) Irish MP. Other than to make a trite point about the venality of politicians of every era the point of this chapter entirely eluded me.

I won’t say anything about the ending other than I found it somewhat bizarre. So – my overall impression is of a book full of great ideas but where the whole was less than the sum of its parts. Perhaps overambitious is the word. In short a very good book let down by too many peripheral episodes.

Whodunnit? – The Appeal by Janice Hallett

It is difficult to review a book if you are not sure what happened in it. This is where I stand with Janice Hallett’s whodunnit concerning the murder of Samantha Greenwood. The Appeal is not so much a story as a very long puzzle. As such it would have helped if the answer, as in those puzzles in the Sunday papers, was printed on the final page. Anyway, unsure if my guess is correct, I find myself rather frustrated after four hundred odd pages of careful (although clearly not careful enough) reading. So instead of a review this is a request for clues from those who are sure they have figured it all out.  First, let me explain where I was left at the end – then hopefully someone nudge me towards what I missed.

I assumed that somewhere in all these texts and e-mails there would be proof-positive of the guilty party. But if it’s there I didn’t find it. I saw quite a few clues that to me pointed to one person. Nothing though that would stand up in a court of law. Part of the problem is, as QC Roderick Tanner himself noted, that what is written in all this correspondence need not necessarily be the truth. Are we actually meant to be able to come up with one culprit or is ambiguity part of the game ?

So, I think the justice system got it wrong – an innocent person is in jail. I won’t say exactly why because I don’t want to give too much away until I hear some other ideas. But the only real clue, it seemed to me, comes down to two texts which contain the same phrase ‘sixth sense’. There is also an exchange of messages between James Hayward (eventually jailed as the guilty party) and Isabel Beck on July 5 (after the murder but before the body is discovered) that seems to me to prove he is innocent. Or am I mis-reading this?

One other thing that bothered me but that I never resolved. James’ announcement of the birth of his twins spells his name wrong – Haywood not Hayward.  Meaning ???

Anyway can people first post up what they think are the key clues to see if we can all get to the right answer ? Once we are agreed on that we can add comments.

Review – Nemesis by Philip Roth

Reading a book about an epidemic in the midst of a supposed pandemic cannot but influence one’s take on the story. Nemesis recounts an (actually fictitious) outbreak of polio in Newark, New Jersey in the summer of 1944. At that time the virus that causes polio had been identified but the discovery of an effective vaccine was still more than a decade away. Polio epidemics were therefore greatly feared, the more-so because the disease saved its worst attacks for children and adolescents. Roth immerses us in the atmosphere of fear and anger wrought by this invisible assassin. Old prejudices are reinforced as anything and everything – Jews, Italians, hot-dog parlours or the mentally retarded are blamed for the epidemic. This visceral fear and suspicion feels a long way from Britain 2020 where fights over toilet rolls in supermarkets, or police arresting pensioners for protesting, contribute to the unreal atmosphere of a ‘pandemic’ where the average victim is over 80 years of age. 

But if the polio epidemic provides the backdrop to this story, it gradually becomes clear that Roth’s real interest lies elsewhere. The ‘hero’ is a young sports instructor called Bucky Cantor. Bucky’s mother died in childbirth and his wastrel, thieving father took no role in his upbringing. Instead Bucky was raised by his grandparents, God-fearing, hard working Jews who raised Bucky to be a ‘real man’. In Bucky’s eyes that meant standing up, and if necessary fighting, for what was right. 

When we first meet Bucky his self-esteem has already taken a battering because he flunked his army medical due to his chronic short-sightedness. So whilst his school buddies are now off fighting the Germans, Bucky is left in Newark teaching sports to the local kids during the summer holidays.  He is idolised by the kids because of his athleticism and friendly nature. His reputation increases still further when he single-handedly faces down a group of Italian youths who come to his sports field to make trouble at the outset of the epidemic. But Bucky is not able to bask in hero-worship as an outbreak of polio soon begins to target his youngsters.

Within days of the outbreak one of his kids is dead and another is in critical condition. Bucky is badly shaken by these events and cannot comprehend how they can happen in a God-fearing world. Nevertheless he continues to do the right thing, visiting the relatives of the stricken children and continuing with his classes in the face of the polio threat. But his equanimity takes a further pounding when the mother of one of the stricken children shrieks at him that it is all his fault. Although understanding that this is just grief talking, this nevertheless causes the devil of guilt to start gnawing at Bucky’s conscience.

Whilst all this is happening, Bucky’s girlfriend Marcia is working at a summer camp in the Pennsylvanian hills – an idyllic spot far from the overheated cities where the epidemic is raging. She naturally wants Bucky to leave the city and come and join her at the camp, but Bucky feels it his duty to show solidarity with his kids by staying in New Jersey.

Anybody who has read Philip Roth’s earlier enfant-terrible stuff (e.g. Portnoy’s Complaint) will surely find this plot a bit staid. Both Bucky and Marcia are good, upstanding young people who embrace the values and standards of the society they were born into. Bucky is frankly a bit dull and his excessive sense of duty a touch exasperating. In fact one begins to feel that Roth has rather let down his characters in his eagerness to preach to us through them. The message, put into the mouth of Bucky’s prospective father-in-law, a folksy-wise doctor, seems to be that ‘a misplaced sense of responsibility cab be a debilitating thing’.

So it is eminently predictable that Bucky will abandon his responsibility to his city kids and run off to Marcia – and equally predictable that he will suffer for it (why else is the book called Nemesis). And so it comes to pass – after a mainly idyllic first week at the camp (dampened somewhat by episodic outpourings of guilt), polio arrives and the innocence of the summer camp is destroyed. Worse, Bucky is himself struck down with polio and comes to believe that it was he who brought it to the camp. He doesn’t quite say that it is pay-back for abandoning his kids but you get the picture.

The rest of the story is told in retrospect 27 years after the events. This again makes the story feel like a little morality tale where the key ‘take-aways’ are now highlighted for us. Bucky could not face being the vector of the polio outbreaks and so sentenced himself to life without happiness. He abandoned Marcia, despite her protestations, and spent the rest of his life alone enveloped in his guilt. It is true that Bucky suffered physical deformity from his bout of polio – the disease attacked both his left arm and his legs, as well as twisting his spine. But the real deformity was in his mind.

We find this all out during conversations with one of his former charges, Arnie Mesnikoff, who chances upon him in the street all those years later. Arnie too has been disfigured by polio but he has still managed to carve out a good life for himself, running a successful business, marrying and having children. But even he cannot convince Bucky that there is life after tragedy if only you will embrace it.

In this final retrospective section Roth’s writing is more literary and powerful than in the bulk of the book. Deliberate or not, this only emphasises how bland much of the writing is. Roth was in his late seventies when the book came out (2010) and it may be that he was just too distant from those young people to bring them to life. And what of all the nudges to the Greek classics – Nemesis, hubris, Odysseus, Hercules? I must say they didn’t really cast any particular light on the story for me. I get it that Bucky was brought down by a combination of misfortune and his ‘exacerbated sense of duty’. Bucky discovered that the world was chaotic, indifferent and beyond his control. That is something we all have to learn eventually – it’s called life. The real cause of Bucky’s demise was not fate. Rather like a Shakespearean hero he was destroyed by a fatal flaw – not greed, or ambition or suspiciousness but simple stubbornness. But if Shakespeare’s heroes are tragic Bucky is merely pathetic. And therein lies the real failure of this story.

Review of Circe by Madeline Miller

Who has not thought about what it would be like to be immortal? To wield supreme power over humanity and shape the fates of men. To be able to turn those who would harm you into pigs! For good or ill such powers are the preserve of gods not mortals. Madeline Miller oonders these themes amongst many others in a beautiful reworking of the Greek myths in her second novel, Circe.

Circe is a minor deity who features in Homer’s Odyssey as a foil for the Greek hero Odysseus on his ill-fated journey back to Ithaca after the Trojan war. But here she takes centre-stage and casts a new light on Odysseus and many others from Homer’s cast-list. Many reviewers have characterised Circe  as a modern feminist take on Homer but to see it through that narrow prism is to diminish the originality of the book.  The power of the story hinges on the fact that Circe is a god who feels compassion for her fellow beings – she is empathic where most gods are indifferent or avaricious. 

Her unusual nature inevitably creates friction with her fellow immortals, especially her father Helios. Her first act of rebellion is to console the Titan Prometheus who has been condemned to perpetual punishment for sharing the secret of fire with humans. But it is when she discovers she has rare powers, and uses them to change her love-rival, Scylla, into a monster that she brings Helios’s wrath down upon her.

Fearful of offending Zeus who is alarmed by Circe’s (and her siblings) strange new powers, Helios banishes her to a remote uninhabited island, Aiaia. There she learns from bitter experience that men can be as callous as gods. She offers hospitality to exhausted sailors who chance upon her island – but in return they assault her. Taken off guard at first, she gets her revenge by turning her assailants into pigs.

Her faith in humanity is maintained by encounters with several remarkable men. Amongst these are Daedelus, Jason and Odysseus. Daedelus is the most admirable of these men but her relationship with Odysseus is perhaps the most interesting. Homer portrayed Odysseus as a great hero –flawed yes but on the whole a force for good. Miller emphasises his more ambiguous, dark side – making it obvious that Odysseus could not have survived his many ordeals without immense stores of cunning and ruthlessness. She compounds this with a darker ending to his story, based on the Telegony, a lost epic of unknown origin. This tale culminates with Odysseus’ fateful encounter with Telegonus – his son, albeit unknown to him, by Circe.

Her brushes with mankind work great changes upon Circe. At first she views humans as we view fireflies –  fleeting creatures, no sooner born than returned to dust. When she falls in love with one (the poor fisherman Glaucus) she thinks that making him immortal will bring her happiness. Sadly Glaucus proves no more constant than the other gods. 

Later, now exiled, she still frets that the men she befriends will soon die. It is not until she bears a son – Telegonus – by Odysseus that she begins to think there may be more to life than immortality. When the powerful goddess Athena demands Telegonus’ life Circe defends him with every last ounce of her strength and wit. Suddenly the short life of her son seems more important than an eternity in Helios’s palace. Later when she meets and falls in love with Telemachus, Odysseus’ elder son, she finds more reasons to value the short and messy lives of mortals. 

By ending her story with the Telegony, Miller gives a new twist to Homer’s tales  of war and warriors. Her Odysseus, having returned to Ithaca and been reunited with his wife and son, finds little satisfaction at the end of his journey. Unable to reassume his former way of life, or connect with Telemachus, he spends much of his time away from Ithaca fighting other battles to – battles in which he often acts with extreme brutality. A modern reader might diagnose post traumatic stress disorder. So much for heroes.  

Long before, Odysseus had refused the goddess Calypso’s offer of immortality. This was his truly heroic act. Circe, in falling in love with Odysseus’ son, also came down on the side of mortals. Given the choice, who among us could resist the temptations of Olympus?

Review: The Biscuit Factory by Hector Drummond.

Hector Drummond is the most recent in a long line of writers (think Kingsley Amis, Malcolm Bradbury, Tom Sharpe) to take a jaundiced look at what has become of our universities. Far from the Ivory Towers they purport to be, Drummond finds them cesspits of festering academic jealousy, incompetent bureaucracy and intellectual poverty. To Drummond the explosive growth of the education sector over the last thirty years has resulted in a proliferation of nonsense where critical thought has been replaced by post-modern group-think.

This calamity is registered through the experiences of Ren Christopher, newly hired Philosophy lecturer at New Grayvington University. To complete his probationary period Ren needs to pass the newly-minted ‘Teaching in Tertiary Education’ course. Unfortunately, in Ren’s eyes, the course is  nothing but left-wing brainwashing and he refuses to take it seriously. It does however provide him with an early warning that academia, at least at Grayvington, will not be idealistic quest for knowledge that he anticipated.

His disillusion is furthered fuelled by his departmental colleagues, some of whom owe their positions their political affiliations rather than their critical faculties. But at least philosophy still counts as a serious subject, unlike sociology which seems to be merely a posturing ground for left-wing agitators. Plotting the downfall of one of these sociologist scum, one Lucius Birch, provides what little plot the book contains.

Students meanwhile are generally indifferent, lazy and venal. A degree is merely a route to a better-paying job – or an alternative to one as hopeless students cling on year after year with no hope of getting a decent qualification. Meanwhile the university has given up the fight to remove malingering students, cowed by threats of legal action and a bad press. Allan Bloom will be spinning in his grave.

Rather than a story unfolding though, much of the book is constructed as a series of scenes from university life which could have been told in more or less any order. Visiting lecturers provide a source of macabre fun, being either sexually incontinent, mentally deranged, or both. Ren’s ordeal at the hands of a very drunk but very priapic philosopher of science, Henry Beagle, is reminiscent of Tom Sharpe’s wilder flights of fancy in Porterhouse Blue or Wilt. Some might find the toilet humour a bit strained though. 

When not being propositioned by visiting illuminati, Ren engages in drunken mental jousting with the sociologists and their hangers on. This provides a convenient vehicle for developing Drummond’s many reservations about the modern universityand its inhabitants. Thus communists of all stripes are given a good kicking for daring to praise such psychopaths as Lenin or Che Guevara. Sociologists are further mocked for conducting research whose conclusions somehow always support their world-view.

Much of this needs to be said – I still cringe when I think of the university posters that used to cover my walls. Che of course was there, supposedly because we all supported his aim of global revolution but really because we just thought he looked cool. Similarly much recent sociological research (try looking in PNAS for example) is so ridiculous that it is hard to accept that the writers really believe it. 

A novel, however, should seek to dramatize these issues more, rather than just have Ren act as Drummond’s mouthpiece. He does attempt this with the story of how Ren and others bring down Lucius Birch by demonstrating that his research is simply made-up. But there is not enough of this sort of thing in the book. A sub-plot about animal rights extremists kidnapping Ren’s friend Miles and freeing the animals from the Psychology Department could have been developed more, as could the relationship with the tin pot dictatorship of Murnesia.

Much of what Drummond writes is very funny though – I thought that some of his ‘set-pieces’ might make for a good academic version of ‘The Thick of It’. And the topic is now quite fashionable as ‘no-platforming’ of even mainstream figures like Jenny Murray shows how ridiculous and juvenile our universities have become. Drummond also gets the gutlessness and greed of the authorities, the greed here in seeking to forge a relationship with the corrupt state of Murnesia, which of course ends very badly.

Had I been Mr Drummond’s editor I would have asked him to tone down a few things. The swearing in places is overused so as to forfeit any shock value. Mr Drummond also seems awfully fond of obscure words that might annoy some readers– lanuginous anybody? And its all written in the present tense which although it gives it a certain immediacy, again suggests a set of scripts rather than a novel.

All in all though, an amusing and interesting read that made me fear for the future of the universities. Anyone with an open mind and a concern for learning should find it equally engaging.

Review: Strangers on a Train by Patricia Highsmith

 Patricia Highsmith is the doyenne of a certain type of ‘noir fiction’ where her protagonists (it is not really possible to call them heroes) although not gangsters, nevertheless operate outside the normal social and moral standards of their society. The epitome of this type of misanthropist is Ripley, memorably brought to the big screen by Alain Delon, Dennis Hopper, John Malkovich and Matt Damon amongst others. But before Ripley, Highsmith tried her hand at a prototype in her very first novel, Strangers on a Train (1950), itself made into a film by Hitchcock.

The proto-Ripley in this tale of unravelling murder, is a feckless young alcoholic called Charles Bruno. The spoiled offspring of  rich but unloving  parents, he resents his father who does not splash out the family cash to him quickly enough. On the other hand he is overly close to his mother who indulges his self-destructive behaviour whilst making half-hearted attempts to get him to clean up his act. Charles is also obsessed with murder stories, another unhealthy trait that his parents do little to eliminate. He is especially drawn to those murders where the perpetrator has managed to evade capture, or even suspicion. He sees that a critical element of these ‘successful’ murders is often the apparent lack of motive. His interest is driven, at least in part, by his wish that his father were dead, so that he could get on and help his mother spend the family fortune. Obviously Highsmith was an eager student of Freud.

Charles’s Oedipal hatred takes concrete form when he meets another young man, Guy Haines, on a long train journey to Texas. Guy is initially reluctant to get drawn into conversation with Charles, who he suspects (rightly) is quite drunk. But he lacks the will power to resist Charles’ insistent overtures of friendship. Reluctant at first to engage, he eventually reveals rather too much about his precarious marital situation.

His tongue loosened by drink Guy tells Charles that he is on his way to see Miriam, from whom he is currently trying to get divorced. Miriam, it appears, is a rather shallow young woman who likes to play around and whom Guy has come to hate. However, Guy is worried that some unforeseen complication may postpone the divorce and hinder his pursuit of happiness with his new love Anne. This fateful conversation sets in motion a plot that will consume them both.

For whilst to Guy his criticism of Miriam may have been no more than drink-fuelled bar-room talk, to Charles it was the answer to his prayer: how to get rid of his father. Charles suggests that they each murder the person who is in the way of the other’s happiness. Since Charles has no connection to Miriam and Guy none to Charles’s family neither will ever be suspected of involvement in the crimes. Guy of course thinks this is nothing but drunken bravado on Charles’s part and when they part at the end of the journey he never expects to see or hear from Charles again….

From here the story proceeds with grizzly inevitability. Whilst Hitchcock insisted on presenting Guy Haines as a good man pushed to the brink by the psychotic Bruno, Highsmith’s original is much darker and more complex. Partly through guilt and partly through weakness Guy is pulled further and further into Bruno’s  scheme. He has multiple opportunities to bring the saga to an end but he fails to take any of them. The interesting question for me is – why?

Guy is portrayed as a text-book example of a successful American in the post-war years. He is a celebrated architect and, even if his first marriage has been a failure, he has a wonderful future to look forward to with the rich and cultivated Anne. So why does he allow all this to slip away? The answer, it seems to me, is that despite having easy access to conventional wealth and success there is an emptiness at the heart of Guy: he doesn’t seem to believe in anything. You see this in the casual way he initially turns down a job that many architects would kill to obtain – or the way in which repeatedly considers ending his apparently happy relationship with Anne.

On the surface Guy is simply a conventional, if talented, man brought down by contact with evil. But if he was susceptible to being corrupted by a pathetic drunk like Bruno it was because of that emptiness at his core. Where did that come from? Was it perhaps that the American Dream itself was rotten? That there was simply no moral centre to a society where success was measured exclusively in dollars? So that when someone comes along with a compelling if repulsive proposition Guy simply has no convincing reasons for saying no?

Whether you buy this interpretation or not, the book is a compulsive read about a man who is powerless to prevent his moral disintegration. In her later books Highsmith choose to concentrate on the Bruno’s of this world, mainly in the form of Tom Ripley. But whilst these sociopathic monsters undoubtedly have a macabre appeal, it is the rest of us, the people like Guy, who hold society together. He shows us just how tenuous modern society really is.